Rashid in the frame as England seek bounce-back

July 22-26, 2016
Start time 11am local (1000 GMT)

Four days of closure for Pakistan at Lord's, four days of soul-searching for England in the interim. A glorious advertisement for Test cricket finished in scenes of rare delirium on Sunday evening, with Mohammad Amir sealing his personal redemption with the final wicket of the match, that of Jake Ball, before the entire Pakistan squad performed a set of five press-ups and a salute to the national flag, as a tribute to the army instructors who helped prepare them for this most exacting of tours.

Under the leadership of Misbah-ul-Haq, Pakistan have found a commonality of purpose that few captains have cultivated since the days of Imran Khan, and his first-day hundred was one of the most profound statements of intent ever witnessed at the grand old ground. If the challenge is now to maintain that level of intensity throughout the remaining three Tests, then all those exhaustive weeks of fitness work, skills training, and acclimatisation would appear to suggest that they fully intend keeping the pressure ramped up on their disorientated opponents.

Setbacks for England's developing team are nothing new - they have lost eight out of 19 Tests since May 2015, after all - but the manner in which they were put in their place last week was particularly comprehensive. In Yasir Shah, an attacking legspinner of the highest calibre, their batsmen encountered a foe rarely seen since Shane Warne's heyday in the 1990s and early 2000s, and were duly routed.

Alastair Cook summed up the performance as "naïve", which was both undeniable but also alarming for England's hopes of an immediate fightback. Naïvety, after all, can only be overcome through situational experience, and the ease with which Yasir was able to run through a rather startled middle-order did not augur at all well.

Some of the shots against the legspinner evoked memories of Ashes drubbings past - Jonny Bairstow's cramped cut against a quicker ball in the first innings, Moeen Ali's ragged charge and miss in the second - and all that was before the magnificence of Pakistan's three left-arm seamers was taken into account. Amir, Wahab Riaz and Rahat Ali arguably took until the second innings to find their range at Lord's, but by the final day they were howling through England's defences with the demented brilliance that has long been a Pakistan trademark.

If changes to England's team are inevitable then they haven't exactly been predictable either. A 14-man squad (latterly chopped down to 12) has seen to that. Recriminations had been in the air ever since the omissions of James Anderson and Ben Stokes from the Lord's squad, and there's even talk that the selectors will be given the chop at the end of the summer for their failure to reflect the ambitions and direction of the coach, Trevor Bayliss. But Anderson's absence didn't exactly account for the failings of the batsmen, and nor, frankly, did Stokes'. While playing for Durham against Lancashire last week, he was extracted by the first ball he faced from the legspinner, Matt Parkinson.

Still, if legspin is the talk of the series, then the inclusion of Adil Rashid as a potential replacement, or even sidekick, for Moeen Ali has to be welcomed. His control of line and length has developed exponentially since his sojourn in the Big Bash with Adelaide Strikers last winter, and he is certainly worthy of consideration for a recall. Nevertheless, as Yasir demonstrated in their last head-to-head in Sharjah in November (where he claimed seven wickets to Rashid's one) there are legspinners, and there are Test legspinners. Pakistan have a Test legspinner who bears comparison with the best. England? Well, that remains to be seen.

England: LDWWL (last five completed matches, most recent first)

 Pakistan: WWWDW

While Cook and Joe Root were adding 110 for England's second wicket in the first innings at Lord's, it seemed that the decision to bump England's player of the year up to the pivotal No. 3 slot was about to prove an unqualified success. But then, on 48, he produced the first of two questionable dismissals, as he charged at Yasir and mowed a top-edge to midwicket, to expose the middle-order and set in motion a decisive collapse. His flappy pull off Rahat on the final day had a similar upshot. Root hasn't got to the top of the world pile without backing his abilities - and England's no-consequences attitude ensures that the dressing-room inquests won't linger. But nevertheless, his promotion does come with heightened responsibilities, particularly against an attack as skilful as Pakistan's. How Root manages that balance could be vital to England's hopes of a fightback.

All eyes were on Amir initially. Then Misbah stole the show with his hundred, before Yasir's wiles provided a further change of focus. It took a committed team performance from Pakistan to secure their first-Test victory, but one man who never quite settled into the task was their senior statesman, Younis Khan. Younis being Younis, he still chipped in with two important cameos - scores of 33 and 25 that contributed to half-century stands in each innings - but to describe him as skittish would be an understatement. Few great batsmen have ever hopped around the crease to quite such dramatic effect, but in the second innings in particular, it was as if Courtney Walsh had possessed his body. An extra measure of calm would go a long way towards ensuring Pakistan are able to post another competitive total at Old Trafford.

After the failings of the batsmen at Lord's, it is the bowlers who pay the price, with both Jake Ball and Steven Finn chopped from the 14-man squad on the eve of the game, to ensure the prompt returns of Anderson and Stokes. The whittling implies it could be a straight shootout between Moeen and Rashid for the spin-bowling slot, in which case Bairstow would slide back down to No. 7 to accommodate Stokes in his favoured No. 6 position. But, given the surfeit of genuine allrounders in England's squad, there is a strong case to experiment with two spinners in a six-man attack. Chris Woakes was one of England's most solid batsmen at Lord's and is arguably wasted as low as No. 9.

England (probable) 1 Alastair Cook (capt), 2 Alex Hales, 3 Joe Root, 4 James Vince/Adil Rashid, 5 Gary Ballance, 6 Ben Stokes, 7 Jonny Bairstow (wk), 8 Moeen Ali, 9 Chris Woakes, 10 Stuart Broad, 11 James Anderson.

No overt hints from Misbah as to the make-up of his XI, but there seems little reason for Pakistan to change a winning formula. Their batsmen produced enough runs over the course of two innings - and will be better acquainted with the conditions having done so - while the trio of left-arm seamers all came good on the final day to take the pressure off Yasir. There was a minor scare in the build-up to the match when Yasir was struck on the left shoulder in the nets, but he's good to go.

Pakistan (probable) 1 Mohammad Hafeez, 2 Shan Masood, 3 Azhar Ali, 4 Younis Khan, 5 Misbah-ul-Haq (capt), 6 Asad Shafiq, 7 Sarfraz Ahmed (wk), 8 Wahab Riaz, 9 Mohammad Amir, 10 Rahat Ali, 11 Yasir Shah.

A good pitch is in prospect, expected to have typical Old Trafford qualities - bounce which helps both pace and spinners, plus increasing turn as the match progresses. The outfield is patchy due to recent concerts (Beyoncé and Rihanna, no less…) which may play a role in scuffing up the ball for reverse swing. There's a chance of a few showers on the first day, but in general the forecast is good.

"Of course, when you lose a game of cricket, your confidence is dented. Absolutely, it would be wrong to sit here saying if you're 1-0 down you're in a better place than if you're 1-0 up. But we've got some really good cricketers in that team, who will be hungry to bounce back."
Alastair Cook backs England to regroup quickly after the disappointment at Lord's

"We always respect the opposition and we don't want to do celebrations that do something for the opposition. We fully respect them, we know their strengths and we have to really work hard in the next three Tests and we're ready for that."
Misbah-ul-Haq implies that the press-up celebrations won't be seen again this series